APEX ratings forecast Manhattan Rain

APEX ratings, developed by respected US analyst Bill Oppenheim, are a very useful tool for identifying two groups of stallions in particular: future leading sires and stallions whose market profile, for one reason or another, does not reflect their above-average performance. 

Standard sires’ lists based on gross or average earnings can be skewed by one or two runners, or by generous prizemoney attached to non-elite races. APEX ratings measure the overall quality of a stallion’s entire crop by categorising runners in three separate groups based on their earnings relative to the total prizemoney on offer in a particular jurisdiction.

The Bluebloods team, with Oppenheim’s blessing, compiles annual APEX ratings for Australia where the minimum prizemoney levels for the three categories in 2015 are:
A = $128,000
B = $79,760
C = $46,460

A racehorse that attains an “A” rating means that horse has earned enough prizemoney to be in the top 2 per cent of all prizemoney earners in Australia.  A racehorse that achieves a “B” rating is in the next two per cent of earners (i.e 2% – 4%), while a “C” rating places a horse in the next four per cent of earners (i.e. 4%-8%).

So the “AB” rating collectively identifies the top 4% of ALL prizemoney earners in the country.  A stallion’s AB rating of 1.00 means that 4% of that stallion’s progeny are in the top 4% of all prizemoney earners. Likewise, a rating of 2.00 means 8% of that stallion’s progeny are in the top 4% of all earners, so he is significantly out-performing the market average.

Manhattan Rain’s excellent APEX ratings modify our view that he’s a quiet achiever – in fact, he’s a not-so-quiet progressive young sire producing class racehorses at a consistently high rate. His “A” rating is a very respectable 1.53, while his exceptional “AB” rating of 2.55 ranks him equal 5^th in that category, equal in fact with Fastnet Rock.

By way of comparison, Champion Second Season Sire Medaglia d’Oro & runner-up I Am Invincible share an AB rating of 2.47 – slightly below Manhattan Rain who is within striking distance of the very best Australian-based stallions’ AB ratings. Snitzel’s AB figure is an outstanding 3.89, making him a clear table leader. Redoute’s Choice is on 3.09, Manhattan Rain and Fastnet Rock are on 2.55, just ahead of Northern Meteor on 2.52, Medaglia D’Oro & I Am Invincible on 2.47 and Lonhro on 2.45,  with Exceed And Excel on 2.31 and Sebring at 2.27.

What does this actually mean?  Put simply, Manhattan Rain has already produced significant runners that have earned above a designated class threshold and at a higher rate than the likes of Northern Meteor, Lonhro & Sebring.

Bill Oppenheim recognises the particular value of  APEX ratings in identifying the up-and-coming stallion, only one top horse away from universal recognition. Three years ago the APEX standout was Snitzel, then standing at a fee of $33,000 inc. GST. The other two young sires with strong APEX figures in 2012 were Shamardal, who stopped shuttling in 2010, leaving behind 23 stakeswinners, including Able Friend, from 196 Australian-bred foals; and Savabeel, now the Champion Sire of New Zealand. 

Perhaps Manhattan Rain, currently standing at $16,500 inc. GST, is next up on the podium. After all, he’s already matched his own sire Encosta De Lago at the same stage of their respective stud careers and we know that Encosta De Lago finished up a dual Champion Sire.

Manhattan Rain celebrated his 5^th stakeswinner on 25 July when 3YO filly Wild Rain won the Lightning Stakes LR at Morphettville. He ends 2014/15 as Australia’s joint leading Second Season Sire by stakeswinners, and fourth on the earnings list with almost $2 million.

For further information read: APEX – the better Average-Earnings Index (PDF format) by Bill Oppenheim, originally published by Bluebloods, September 2012; re-published with permission.

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